SYNOPSIS
The markets are still moving up and volatility is virtually non-existent, if VIX is your volatility gauge. The markets were fairly quiet (i.e. low volume) moving into the Christmas weekend.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) pulled back to 85% last week. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR fell to 27%; and the S&P 500 APAR was lower as well at 26%. The decline in the PTP “speed of making money” score was mainly due to the sale of one our most profitable positions (+77% over 20 weeks). All good things come to an end, when a sell signal is triggered. We’ll be looking to our newer holdings to take up the slack and boost our score higher once again.

Last Week in the Indexes… On a one week basis, most of the major indexes were up slightly last week. The Russell 2000 still has the leading spot in the trend rankings of the major indexes we track.
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Investor Confidence… As usual we’ve waited until Tuesday to distribute this edition of TrendWatch Weekly, so that we can include the (4th Tuesday) monthly results of the State Street Investor Confidence Index report. This month (December) the Global ICI decreased to 94.2, down 3.4 points from November’s revised reading of 97.6. We have the regional results with their historical patterns as well. The European outlook is more upbeat that what what we’re seeing for North America.

We like to remind you that this is not just a survey. The SSICI Global Index and the Regional Indexes reported in the full edition are based on actual money flows controlled by institutional investors… between stocks (higher risk) and bonds (lower risk). 100 (where we are now) is the neutral point.

PTA Perspective… New Year, New Opportunities: Getting Started in 2017
Year-end is a great time to review your trading success for 2016, and start to think about what you might do differently in 2017. This is especially true for anyone who hasn’t easily outperformed the major indexes like the S&P 500 or the S&P/TSX Composite Index over the past 12 months. This week we offer some tips on conducting your track record assessment, and offer some guidance on making improvements during the year ahead.

SYNOPSIS
The markets are still moving up and volatility is virtually non-existent, if VIX is your volatility gauge. We’re in a great time from a seasonality perspective, and the infamous Santa Claus Rally may be already underway.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) pulled back to 208% from 259% last week. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR fell to 28%; and the S&P 500 APAR was also considerably lower at 31%. We turned active again last week, selling two holdings from the PTP and adding five more.

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PTA Perspective… Best of TrendWatch Weekly: Do You Really Want to Invest Like Warren Buffet? Parts 1 & 2

One of the problems with having a continuous stream of new subscribers coming onboard is that we’d like our new folks to catch up with the rest of us, while avoiding too much repetition for long-time subscribers. Sometimes we simply put a new spin on an old topic; but in that process, we sometimes lose a lot of the best parts of the previous coverage. To remedy this we are going to occasionally reprint previous editions that even precede the TrendWatch Weekly archives available to all members at the web site. This week we’ve retrieved our two-part series that reveals that the “Buffet Way” to riches is largely a myth. While value-based investing worked fairly well a century ago, we argue that it is far from an optimal approach for the 21st century. We argue further that Buffet no longer practices value investing anyway.

SYNOPSIS

We keep repeating it, but the major US indexes are still hitting new record levels, while volatility remains incredibly low.

PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) pulled back to 259% from 306% last week. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR rose to 38%; but the S&P 500 APAR jumped up to 47% from 18% last time. We sold one stock from the PTP last week.

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PTA Perspective… Did You Know That There’s a Canadian Securities Exchange? Do You Care?

Most people know of the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and the Toronto Venture Exchange (VEN). Both are managed by TMX Group. But how many of you know about the Canadian Securities Exchange (CSE)? This smaller player bills itself as “The Exchange for Entrepreneurs”. It’s constituents are micro-caps… mostly tiny companies that can’t get a listing on the S&P/TSX Venture Exchange, let alone the S&P/TSX Composite. This week we tell you all about it, so that you can decide for yourselves whether you’d consider taking a chance investing in companies that small.

SYNOPSIS

Apologies for this week’s late delivery of the newsletter and the lack of a lengthy PTA Perspective or PTA Research section. As much as we try to prepare for publishing our weekly updates while travelling, we inevitably run into some technical glitches. Everything should be back to normal next week.

As for the basic summary, the major US indexes are still close to record levels, while volatility remains incredibly low.

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PTP… Our ProfiTrend Portfolio APAR (annualized price appreciation rate) pulled back a bit to 306% from 388% last week. The S&P/TSX Composite Index APAR rose to 33%; but the S&P 500 APAR pulled back to 18% from 39% last time. There was no trading in the PTP last week.

Last Week in the Indexes… Results were definitely mixed. On a one-week basis both the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq fell about 2.5%, while the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index and the S&P/TSX Venture Index rose about the same amount.