SYNOPSIS

Trump is blowing smoke again, literally! Let’s get those coal plants subsidized, so that Trump supporters will vote for him next time around… if they live that long, given the conditions of their lungs! At PTA we don’t associate ourselves with the “ethical investing” camp, since that simply limits our profit potential. And, we’ve made some wonderful profits in coal stocks a number of years ago. But that’s not going to happen this time. It’s not that solar and wind will prevail. They won’t. It’s too early, and tax payer subsidies are the only thing keeping some of these companies in business. But coal plant to natural gas conversions and nuclear are working just fine. Meanwhile, in countries like Canada, hydro-electric power is virtually free, except for building the infrastructure. Americans are sadly one of the few countries worldwide that still require a lot of coal-powered electricity. Electric cars are indirectly coal-fuelled cars in the US! Think about that as you cruise around in your Tesla in the US!

Day by Day… Once again a similar pattern over the week, but with bigger gains on the US side again.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score gained some more points from 342% last week. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite and S&P 500 APARs barely moved.

There was no trading in the PTP last week. That should change this week, since we’re holding too much cash.

PTA Perspective… Is Money Flow Really a Thing?
It’s all about supply and demand, right. Money flows into a commodity/stock/other asset when supply is scare, and flows out when there is a surplus. But are the money flow measures that technical analysts use really tap into that? We are very sceptical about that, and we’ll tell you why.

SYNOPSIS

Stocks vs gold has been a no-brainer so far this year. But we’ll have a closer look in this week’s PTA Perspective… Is Gold’s Reputation Tarnished? Is it really plunging gold prices? Or is it the rising value of the US dollar? Or both. We’ll check it out.

Day by Day… We have similar zig-zags for this past week, but the S&P 500 ended higher, whereas the S&P/TSX Composite Index ended unchanged on the week.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score pulled back from 367% last week. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite APAR added 3 points, and the S&P 500 APAR gained 9. The PTP score is still above its seven-year median (of about 100) for 17 consecutive weeks now.

There was no trading in the PTP last week.

SYNOPSIS

Trump’s un-winnable trade war continues, with the only victims so far being the people who voted for him, and perhaps Turkey. But winning a trade war with a small country who’s economy has already disintegrated, can hardly be called a victory. It’ll be a cheap time to visit Istanbul, if you’ve been meaning to take a vacation there.

Day by Day… Both markets closed the week lower, but with quite different trajectories. Keep in mind though, that Canadian markets were closed on Monday, hence an initial reading of 0.0% for Monday.

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PTP… Our PTP APAR score advanced 8 points over the week. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX Composite APAR fell 8 points, as did the S&P 500 APAR. The PTP score has been above its seven-year median (of about 100) for 16 consecutive weeks now.

As for trading in the ProfiTrend Portfolio, we sold one holding, and added two new ones.

PTA Perspective… All Good News in the Pot Patch, but No Move in Stock Prices!
It’s been puzzling to us that every day brings positive news, views and statistics about the publicly-traded companies in the thematic marijuana market, yet stock prices have not been showing that so much, since the big run-up in fall 2017 and the first month or two of 2018. There have been ups and downs, but nothing near as dramatic as the up-ramp back then. We unravel that narrative this week, and look at some developments in the cannabis ETF space.

SYNOPSIS

It’s official! The world’s largest company is now worth in excess of $1,000,000,000,000.00… yep, a trillion dollars US! Even more amazing is that with a P/E of just 19, Apple Inc is one of the cheapest large tech stocks out there! Compare with Microsoft (P/E= 73), Google (P/E= 52), Amazon (P/E= 232) or Netflix (P/E= 234). The price/earnings ratio, as you should know, is how much investors are willing to pay per share for $1 of earnings. At an Amazon multiple, Apple would have a market cap of over $12 trillion.

Day by Day… After a week or two of disappointing performance in tech stocks, Apple provided a much needed boost to the Information Technology sector mid-week. That also drove stocks in general higher through weekend. While S&P 500 stocks started weaker last Monday, by Friday they were higher for the week than S&P/TSX Composite Index equities.

PTP… Our PTP APAR score advanced over the week. The S&P/TSX Composite APAR rose a couple points, as did the S&P 500 APAR. The PTP score has been above its seven-year median (of of about 100) for 15 consecutive weeks now.

As for trading in the ProfiTrend Portfolio, we sold we sold two holdings after sell signals.

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As usual we provide more detail on the regional ICI’s in the complete Investor Confidence section of TrendWatch Weekly.

PTA Perspective… Building Your Own Predictive Models for the Stock Markets
Relative trend analysis™ (RTA) has been designed in such a way that you don’t really need to forecast the future. You just go with the flow (the prevailing trends) until they end. But that doesn’t mean that you can’t experiment with other ways to make money… especially in times when there are relatively few solid trends to be found. Although the current market environment remains positive, it can’t hurt to plan for the future. Besides, do-it-yourself investors should always have some back-burner activities going. Reading about other strategies helps, but it’s definitely more fun to do some of your own research. In this updated edition of a piece I wrote several years ago, I offer some tips on building and testing investment models based solely on probability considerations. After all, the initial goal is predicting market direction. Everything else builds on that foundation.