Coping with Risk — 12 Varieties to Worry About

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SYNOPSIS
For the week, our regularly reported indexes rose again. Canadian stocks are show some definite improvement now. the S&P/TSX Composite Index was up 3.3% last week, bringing it to the top of our rankings based on trend. By contrast, Canadian small caps are trailing the rankings, with the US indexes in between. Nasdaq had a nice gain of 2.7% last week.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… The annualized growth rate for the ProfiTrend Portfolio is now at +79%… well above the comparable numbers for the S&P/TSX Composite Index (+16%) and the S&P 500 (+10%).

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest results for January are included in this issue, hot off the presses from the January 27 release date. The latest reading continues to favour stocks over lower risk assets. While the global index fell slightly, due mainly to declines in the European and North American markets. Equity holdings in Asian increased modestly.
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PTA 2015… Renewal Time… Early Bird Special!
We’ve increased the annual ProfiTrend Advantage 2.0 Membership Fee to $149.95; but are offering an Early Bird Special Offer to lock in the 2014 rate of $99.95 for another year. The offer expires this coming weekend… specifically January 31. So, regardless of when you first signed up for our services, take advantage of our $50 discount. Your anniversary (renewal) date doesn’t change, so even if you joined us in June 2014, an early-bird payment of $99 now will take you to June 2016. Use this link now!

Topic of the Week… Coping with Risk — 12 Varieties to Worry About
Every stock purchase requires a certain amount of risk, but many investors tend to just think in terms of the risk that the stock price will fall, not rise. But that begs the question… what could be responsible for a stock price falling? This week delve into12 types of risk, and why the standard suggestions for coping with those risks are inadequate for the 21st century investor.

Seasonality… You’ve already read about the January Effect in a previous issue; but are you also aware of the January Barometer? This is one of a small handful of conditional calendar effects. Most seasonality effects tend to repeat on a regular basis… annually, monthly, every four years, during repeating holiday periods, etc. A conditional calendar effect essentially says… If X happens during a certain time period, then Y happens during a different time period. The January Barometer says that if stocks end lower during the month of January (as measured by DJI or S&P500), then stocks will end the year lower. Is that really true? You’ll find out in this week’s TrendWatch Weekly.

Q & A: Responding to Recent Subscriber Queries

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SYNOPSIS
The big story of the week was the move by the central bank of Switzerland to remove the exchange cap relative to the Euro, and drop interest rates. The increase in the value of the Franc exceeded just about any one-day move in the history of currency trading. The losers of course were forex traders that didn’t see it coming (most of them), Swiss exporters (drugs, watches, Swiss Army knives), and tourists who were planning to ski the Swiss Alps this winter and eat chocolate. Swiss citizens will be able to buy more on global markets, but the impact here in North America shouldn’t be too significant, except for those skiers, and someone looking to buy a Rolex. Meanwhile, North American equities continued to fall last week and all of the 6-pack of major indexes we watch are now trending lower.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… The annualized growth rate for the ProfiTrend Portfolio is now at +87%… well above the comparable numbers for the S&P/TSX Composite Index (-9%) and the S&P 500 (-5%).

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest results for December are included again in this issue. The latest reading continues to favour stocks over lower risk assets. While the global index fell slightly, due mainly to declines in the European and North American markets. Equity holdings in Asian increased modestly.
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PTA 2015… Renewal Time, with an Early Bird Special
Our fee structure changes for ProfiTrend Advantage 2.0 Membership in 2015. In spite of ups and downs, we assume that you’ve all had a profitable 2014 by capitalizing on our weekly information and data. We also assume that you’re looking forward to more of the same during 2015. You already know that the relative trend analysis™ (RTA) approach is designed to maximize profits via our unique brand of trend analysis, while reducing potential losses during the down times. Be sure to renew early to lock in your 2014 rate for 2015. We’ve extended the Early Bird Renewal Discount to January 31, but that’s final! See the specifics below.

Topic of the Week… Q & A: Responding to Recent Subscriber Queries
We tackle some interesting reader questions this week, instead of jumping into yet another research exercise. We have people wondering about the mysterious ProfiTrend Portfolio (PTP), the rationale behind what makes this newsletter unique, and what are future plans are, among other things. We hope that we’ve replied to all of these concerns in a satisfactory manner below.

Seasonality… We repeat our summary for January, and will get into a longer-term perspective next week.

Year-End Review – 2014 – Part 2

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Here’s to profits in greenbacks in 2015, at least until the loony reverses course!

SYNOPSIS
It was definitely a week of wild swings in the levels of the major indexes… two major down days on Monday and Tuesday, followed by big moves to the upside on Wednesday and Thursday. Finally on Friday, a bit of down and sideways. The net result for the week, however, was negative.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… The annualized growth rate for the ProfiTrend Portfolio is now at +97%… well above the comparable numbers for the S&P/TSX Composite Index (+18%) and the S&P 500 (+17%).

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PTA 2015… Renewal Time, with an Early Bird Special
Our fee structure changes for ProfiTrend Advantage 2.0 Membership in 2015. In spite of ups and downs, we assume that you’ve all had a profitable 2014 by capitalizing on our weekly information and data. We also assume that you’re looking forward to more of the same during 2015. You know that the relative trend analysis™ (RTA) approach is designed to maximize profits via our unique brand of trend analysis, while reducing potential losses during the down times. Be sure to renew early to lock in your 2014 rate for 2015. We’ve extended the Early Bird Renewal Discount to January 31, but that’s final! See the specifics below.

Topic of the Week… Year-End Review – 2014 – Part 2
Last quarter’s performance had a fairly significant impact on overall 2014 results among broad indexes and sector sub-indexes, but there are some interesting discrepancies as well. You’ll find all of that below.

Seasonality… Our usual calendar effect specialist, Brooke Thackeray, has just posted his first videos for the new year, and we’ve included them below. We also include our own brief summary of what’s to be expected in January and beyond.

Year-End Review – 2014 – Part 1

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Let’s keep our portfolios in the green in 2015!

SYNOPSIS
Last week’s gains surprisingly favoured Canadian stocks, while US equities fell. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is now at least temporarily at the top of our six index trend rankings.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… The annualized growth rate for the ProfiTrend Portfolio is now at +97%… well above the comparable numbers for the S&P/TSX Composite Index (+18%) and the S&P 500 (+17%).
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State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest results for December and the revised data for November have just been released. The December reading continues to favour stocks over lower risk assets. While the global index fell slightly, due mainly to declines in the European and North American markets. Equity holdings in Asian increased modestly.

PTA 2015… Renewal Time, with an Early Bird Special
Our fee structure changes for ProfiTrend Advantage 2.0 Membership in 2015. In spite of ups and downs, we assume that you’ve all had a profitable investment year by incorporating our weekly information and data. We also assume that you’re looking forward to more of the same during 2015. You know that the relative trend analysis™ (RTA) approach is designed to maximize profits via our unique brand of trend analysis, while reducing potential losses during the down times. Be sure to renew early to lock in your 2014 rate for 2015. We’ve extended the Early Bird Renewal Discount to January 31, and that’s final! See the specifics below.

Topic of the Week… Year-End Review – 2014 – Part 1
Last quarter performance had a fairly significant impact on overall 2014 performance among broad indexes and sector sub-indexes, but there are some interesting discrepancies as well. You’ll find all of that below.