Oil Volatility Blues!

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SYNOPSIS
On a one-week basis, it was major gains across the board with the major indexes we track. All trend values are now positive except for the S&P/TSX Venture Index. One-week advances ranged from 1.7% to 3.8%.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… The annualized growth rate for the ProfiTrend Portfolio declined dramatically to +10%below the benchmark indexes for only the second time ever! The story behind that is this week’s Topic of the Week.

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest results (for January) continue to favour stocks over lower risk assets. While there were declines across all of the region indexes, the Global ICI is still at 106.6.
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Topic of the Week… Oil Volatility Blues!
The story of the week (for us especially) was the sudden advance in the price of oil, in spite of all fundamentals remaining negative. Within the ProfiTrend Portfolio, a leveraged inverse ETP had been reaping abundant profits for us. That trend reversed sharply, as oil gained over 20% in a little over a week. We didn’t act quickly enough. The net result is a staggeringly low PTP AGR value for this past week (10%). What happened? A flaw in the relative trend analysis™ (RTA) framework? Operator error? Some of each? You find the answer in this week’s discussion.

Seasonality… The calendar results for February (from Thackray’s book) are re-posted. He has apparently decide not to do his monthly videos once again, and we haven’t seen his newsletter for February either.

Featured Video… Philippe Jordon’s Capital Asset Management Fund was up 23% last year. This video will leave you with one of two conclusions… (1) This is the stupidest hedge fund manager on earth, or (2) he doesn’t have a clue what his staff are actually doing. He speaks total gibberish for the entire interview. Listen to find a single sentence that makes sense. I couldn’t find one.