SYNOPSIS
Last Week… The major indexes that we track all had gains of 2-3% last week, bringing most trend values to the positive side, from recent downtrends. Only S&P/TSX Venture Index has a slightly negative trend value.
ProfiTrend Portfolio (PTP)… The 65% reading this week is down from 113% last week, even as the benchmark index AGRs move to the plus side. The PTP right now is highly influenced by a highly leverage inverse ETN. That just happened to be a drag on the PTP last week, as the price of the underlying commodity changed direction.
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Investor Confidence… The latest SSICI numbers for December 2015 are now available. The Global ICI rose to 108.3, up 1.0 point from November’s revised reading of 107.3. The improvement in sentiment was driven by an increase in the European ICI from 96.2 to 103.7 along with the Asian ICI rising 4.6 points to 105.1. By contrast, the North American ICI decreased by 5.9 points to 106.6. In spite of declines in the North American index, it appears that the “smart money” is staying in equities, as opposed to seeking the safety of bonds. 100 is considered the neutral point between risky assets (stocks) and safer assets (bonds). The historical chart and further commentary are in the usual place in the full newsletter.
Seasonality… We’ve added some initial data on typical market index performance for January. Historically, January is a fairly positive month for stocks.