SYNOPSIS
The major US indexes surged ahead again last week, as did the S&P/TSX Composite (to a lesser degree). Meanwhile Canadian small caps continue to move dramatically lower.
ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our PTP annualized growth rate is now at 79%, down considerably from the previous week. That still compares favourably with +28% for the S&P 500 and -10% for the S&P/TSX Composite companies.
Seasonality… We continue our discussion of what November might have in store as far as calendar effects go.
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State Street Investor Confidence Index… We include the October results. The Global ICI decreased to 115.1 in October, down 8.8 points from September’s revised reading of 123.9. 100 is considered the neutral point in the balance between risky assets (i.e. stocks) and low risk assets (i.e. bonds). The regional breakdown shows a reduction in European equity exposure after several months of solid gains there (contrary to media reports).
Topic of the Week… Dow Theory Revisited
For fun this week, we decided to revisit one of the earliest forms of technical analysis… Dow Theory. It dates back to editorials written by Charles H. Dow (1851-1902), the first editor of the Wall Street Journal and co-founder of Dow Jones & Company. If this were just an historical oddity, we wouldn’t have bothered with this; but Dow Theory is still widely followed by many analysts today. We run through the basics and try to unravel what Dow Theory is telling us about current market conditions.