A Brief History of Bull & Bear Markets & How to Track Them

SYNOPSIS
The markets were up last week with S&P/TSX Composite Index stocks leading the way.

Trading activity… There was no activity this past week in the ProfiTrend Portfolio (PTP). The annualized growth rate of the PTP is 123%… down slightly from last week. That compares with an AGR of 29% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index and 15% for the S&P 500.

Topic of the Week… A Brief History of Bull & Bear Markets & How to Track Them
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We’re taking on a larger than usual challenge this week. We want you to have a better understanding of bull and bear markets, and we want to provide you with some charting tips for making this sort of data far more informative than conventional price history graphs. The methods we describe can easily be re-applied elsewhere for similar cyclical situations. We walk you through every bull and bear market from 1956 to the present. That’s obviously not all of them, but a half-century of recent history should be enough.

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest data for the month of April are included… fresh off of the latest press release last Tuesday. There was a tiny pull back during April, but the SSICI is still favouring riskier assets like stocks, rather than the security of income-based vehicles like bonds. As you may recall the SSICI is based on the actual money flow of institutional investors, not opinion surveys. State Street has $2.3 trillion under management, so this should be a rock solid indicator of where the “smart money” is located.

Seasonality… Now that it’s May and “Sell in May and Go Away” may be on some people’s minds, those who invest in calendar effects should being looking for niche opportunities. We have some of those below. We also have Brooke Thackray’s latest monthly videos on calendar effects for May.

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